Managing Bias

Bais - judgements are systematically in a particular direction

Noise - people with similar views arrive at very different conclusions

noise must be considered a significant factor to fully understand when bias is being exerted.

Noise

Noise can be recognised and measured without knowing anything about the subject or potential bias.

Noise is important factor when considering bias as many of our conclusions are drawn from judgements whos answer is not fully known or even unknowable at that point in time.

Movie studio exectutives make judgements about about a potential market without knowing the gross amout the film will actually make. Analysing statitics can give a rough guide from past experiences, although that is not the same as actually knowing.

Weather forcasts are very noisy as they try predict the future state of the highly complex global weather system that drives all local weather reporting.

Cognitive Bias Song